Heatwaves Are Reshaping What Consumers Drink – And Why Rioja Is Well Positioned

Patrick Schmitt’s analysis in The Drinks Business lands at an important moment for anyone managing a wine portfolio. As European heatwaves become more frequent and more extreme, consumption patterns are shifting in ways that are measurable, durable, and commercially significant. The question for buyers and sommeliers isn’t whether to respond — it’s how.

The headline finding is structural rather than seasonal: globally, red wine’s share of consumption has now fallen below 50% for the first time, with sparkling, white, rosé and orange wines — all cold-served — taking up the slack. Schmitt’s reporting frames this not as a passing trend but as a category realignment driven in part by climate, with warmer and more frequent hot spells making refreshment a baseline expectation rather than a niche preference.

“As Europe’s summers grow hotter, the wine trade is adapting with more cold-served and lighter styles. But if temperatures continue climbing, the bigger challenge may not be which wines consumers choose — but whether they choose wine at all.”
— Patrick Schmitt, The Drinks Business, August 3, 2026

That last point carries the most urgency for the trade. French on-trade data from a heatwave week in late June shows wine volumes fell 25% while beer held almost flat and water surged 36%. Research from the University of California, ETH Zurich and North Carolina State University confirms that alcohol sales peak at just over 32°C before declining — as consumers become less inclined to go out and more inclined to reach for non-alcoholic options. For list builders and buyers, the implication is clear: range versatility and accessible, lower-alcohol styles are becoming commercial necessities, not optional additions.

Rioja’s position in this environment is stronger than it might first appear. The region’s diversity — across styles, weights, colours and price points — maps unusually well onto where consumption is heading. And the elevation-driven natural acidity that defines the best Rioja sites is precisely the quality that keeps wines fresh, food-friendly and appealing even when ambient temperatures rise.

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Key data points from the article

<50%	Red wine’s global share has fallen below 50% For the first time, white, sparkling, rosé and orange wines collectively outsell red globally. The shift is structural and climate-linked — not a short-term blip. Cold-served styles are the growth category.
-25%	Wine volumes in French on-trade during heatwave week French on-trade data from the June 22–28 heatwave period showed wine down 25%, spirits down 14%, beer nearly flat at -0.3%. Water up 36%. The data makes a strong case for range diversification and accessible styles.
45%	Fine wine collectors seeking more white wine iDealwine survey data: 45% of fine wine buyers say they plan to buy more white wine as temperatures rise. 74% favour older vintages — viewing them as better balanced. Both signals point toward aged white Rioja as an underserved opportunity.
32°C	The temperature at which alcohol sales peak — then decline University of California / ETH Zurich / NC State research confirms alcohol sales rise with temperature up to just over 32°C before falling. Above that threshold, footfall drops and consumers shift to non-alcoholic options — a strategic consideration for on-trade programming.
30k ha	Hectares uprooted in Chile and Bordeaux respectively Both regions have removed close to 30,000 hectares of red vineyards over three years and are repositioning toward lighter, fresher styles. Rioja, by contrast, is not uprooting — it is diversifying in place, leveraging its elevation and indigenous varieties to maintain balance naturally.

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What this means for your Rioja range

WHITE	White Rioja is an underexploited list opportunity With 45% of fine wine collectors actively seeking more white wine, and aged whites scoring strongly with buyers who favour balance over power, white Rioja — from fresh viura-based styles to complex aged Gran Reserva blancos — addresses a documented gap on most lists.
ROSÉ	Rioja rosado offers credible depth in a growth category Rosé is one of the few wine categories growing in the current climate. Rioja rosado — particularly clarete styles made from old-vine field blends — gives buyers a point of difference from the ubiquitous Provence pink and a stronger food pairing story.
RED	Aged Reserva and Gran Reserva are the chillable red answer While Bordeaux scrambles to create a “chillable reds” narrative from scratch, Rioja has always made wines with enough structure and acidity to serve slightly cool. Traditional Reserva and Gran Reserva — silky-tannined, lower in perceived alcohol, naturally fresh — are the authentic version of a trend other regions are manufacturing.
BTG	By-the-glass programmes need heat-resilient options On-trade footfall drops above 32°C. When consumers do come in, they want refreshment first. A well-structured BTG programme anchored in Rioja white, rosado and lighter garnacha-based reds gives front-of-house staff something to confidently recommend — at accessible price points with a compelling origin story.

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The broader warning in Schmitt’s piece — that wine may lose consumers altogether if temperatures keep climbing — is a category-level concern that the trade needs to take seriously. But for buyers with well-structured, elevation-grown, naturally balanced wines in their portfolios, the near-term outlook is more nuanced. Rioja’s 495-metre average vineyard elevation, its indigenous varieties with high natural acidity, and its century of winemaking discipline make it one of the regions best equipped to remain relevant as the climate shifts.

The regions losing ground are those with one style, one temperature profile, and no room to pivot. Rioja — the Land of 1,000 Wines — is not one of them.

Read the full Drinks Business article by Patrick Schmitt →

This article originally appeared on The Drinks Business, August 3, 2026.
Written by Patrick Schmitt. All editorial opinions are his own.